This Week: Tariff Uncertainty Looms Over Retail Earnings Season

Welcome back to The Week Ahead, your guide to the coming week’s most important and interesting events. This week, I’ll take a look at expectations heading into the peak of retail earnings season, plus I polled The Business of Fashion‘s luxury team about what they’re excited about heading into Paris Fashion Week.

Last week, Steve Madden and off-price giant TJX kicked off retail earnings season with decent results tempered by warnings about what the future might hold. Madden predicted strong revenue growth, but withdrew its profit guidance, citing the US Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, which left future trade policy uncertain. TJX, which owns T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, topped sales and profits expectations but warned its customers may forego nice-to-have purchases as they are squeezed by rising costs.

This week should determine which narrative wins out. More than a dozen major brands and retailers will report quarterly results in the coming days. Here’s a day-by-day rundown:

Monday: ThredUp

Tuesday: Beiersdorf, On, Ross, Kontoor Brands, Target

Wednesday: Adidas, Bath & Body Works, American Eagle Outfitters, Abercrombie & Fitch

Thursdsay: Prada, Olaplex, Gap, Victoria’s Secret

We have luxury giants and mall brands, big-box stores and their off-price strip mall neighbours, plus a smattering of beauty brands. The focus should be on the mall chains (American Eagle, Abercrombie & Fitch, Gap, Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works, for the record). All are in more or less the same boat, heavily exposed to tariffs and with customers who, yes, are price sensitive, but still consider other factors while shopping.

Listen to what each has to say on the outlook for tariffs and consumer sentiment, but take their statements with a grain of salt. Quarterly results are as much about setting expectations as reflecting reality, and having a conservative outlook now (or no outlook, if you’re Steve Madden), can pay off later if things turn out okay.

Each brand has its own narrative independent of tariffs, of course. American Eagle, Victoria’s Secret and Gap are all riding high on recent marketing coups and spruced-up assortments and stores. They’re following in the footsteps of Abercrombie, which has seen its remarkable turnaround show signs of sputtering.

Paris Fashion Week Preview

Paris Fashion Week opens on Monday. A season of sophomore shows doesn’t have quite the same ring to it as last fall’s historic lineup of designer debuts. But there’s plenty to chew over. I polled my colleagues on BoF’s luxury team about what they’re looking out for, and here’s what they said:

Jonathan Anderson’s Dior is off to a “good start,” LVMH chief executive Bernard Arnault said last month. Can Anderson keep up the momentum? This season will already be his fifth show since July. (Dior shows on Tuesday)

Keeping up the momentum at LVMH stablemate Loewe in the wake of Anderson’s departure hasn’t been an issue so far: Jack McCollough and Lazaro Hernandez’ debut for the brand blew past expectations. Can they do it again? (Loewe shows Friday)

Another sophomore show includes Pierpaolo Piccioli’s second runway for Balenciaga. It’s a key opportunity to sharpen his own vision for the brand after a debut that paid homage to founder Cristóbal and predecessor Demna. (Balenciaga shows Saturday)

Anthony Vaccarello’s Saint Laurent has been an island of stability for Kering during its recent troubles. As the designer celebrates 10 years with the brand, the question becomes how to keep moving forward without diluting his ultra-clear vision. (Saint Laurent shows Tuesday)

There is one debut on the schedule: Balmain will stage its first show by Antonin Tron, founder of the brand Atlein and formerly a behind-the-scenes designer for Vaccarello at Saint Laurent. (Balmain shows Wednesday)

It’s Pieter Mulier’s last show for Alaïa before heading to Versace. Those are big shoes to fill, and there are no signs Richemont is close to finding a successor. (Alaïa shows Wednesday)