Is Inflation Beaten? Depends on Where You Look

For most of the last two years, inflation has put fashion retailers in a defensive crouch. Companies reporting strong sales today warn that the good times may end tomorrow, either due to rising prices or the interest rate hikes meant to combat them. Struggling brands blamed cost-of-living pressures for why consumers aren’t flocking to their stores.

We may finally be emerging from this period of uncertainty (though how many times have you heard that one in recent years?). Fewer companies are talking about inflation when they release financial results, though it still crops up: just last week, Ralph Lauren blamed inflation for poor sales in its outlet channels, while anticipating the effects would moderate in the second half of the year. The two biggest off-price retailers, TJX (TJ Maxx and Marshalls) and Ross Stores, should offer further commentary when they report results this week.

They have good reason to be optimistic. Last week, the US reported consumer prices rose by 3.2 percent in July. That was slightly faster than June’s pace, but low enough to raise hopes the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates where they are when they meet on Sept. 20, sparing the economy further misery.

This week, we’ll get readings from a host of other countries and regions, including India, Japan, Canada, the UK and the Eurozone. The latter two are big fashion markets where the fight to rein in prices has been far more painful than in the US. Economists are expecting inflation to moderate a bit in both. The Bank of England sees inflation falling to 5 percent by the end of the year, down more than half from its peak but probably not low enough to offer much relief for the country’s troubled high street retailers. In continental Europe it’s a similar story, with inflation falling, but with months or even years of anaemic growth ahead.

Many European brands are counting on jubilant American tourists to offset depressed locals (in the US, the July inflation data pointed to sharply lower airfares, which should encourage even more vacations). And more Chinese tourists may soon join them, as the country lifted a ban on international group tours, sending European luxury stocks up last week. Of course, consumer prices are an issue in China too – though it’s the possibility of deflation, rather than inflation, that’s holding back spending.

What Else to Watch for This Week

Tuesday

Swiss sneaker maker On and jewellery chain Pandora report results

US releases retail sales data for July; economists expect a fourth consecutive month of growth

UK reports June unemployment

Wednesday

TJX reports results

UK releases July inflation data

Thursday

Tapestry executives will have another opportunity to talk about their plans for Capri’s brands when the company releases quarterly results

Farfetch is also releasing earnings, fresh off reports it’s shutting its beauty division to focus on fashion

Ross Stores reports results

Friday

Estee Lauder reports results; the cosmetics giant’s stock is trading near early-pandemic lows after predicting weak sales and profits for 2023

UK July retail sales, Eurozone July inflation

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